Advanced Forecast ILR TRA

This dataset provides a forecast out to 24 months.

This dataset contains Interim Levy Rate , Total Reserve Amount and CfD Payment forecasts for six Quarterly Obligation Periods. Different levels of sensitivity have been applied on forecasting the figures and are termed as base case, low case, and high case sensitivities.

The base case assumes our best view of Start Dates and Market Reference Prices. The low case sensitivity adopts the same assumptions as for the base case, but with the assumption that all CfDs expected to generate in the forecast period commence CfD generation six months after the Start Date or an alternative later start date assumption of the base case. It also assumes an increase to power market prices over the period covered by the advanced forecast. The high case sensitivity adopts the same assumptions as for the base case, but with the exception that it assumes that all CfDs expected to generate in the forecast period commence CfD generation two months prior to the Start Date or an alternative early start date assumption of the base case. It also assumes a decrease to power market prices over the period covered by the advanced forecast.

The Advanced Forecast ILR TRA dataset replaces the previous 15 Month Forecast ILR TRA dataset, which is no longer available.

This dataset is updated following the end of each Quarterly Obligation Period.

Data and Resources

Additional Info

Field Value
Last Updated October 4, 2021, 09:57 (UTC)
Created December 3, 2020, 15:52 (UTC)
Forecast CfD Payments (£) The CfD payments which are expected to be paid to the generators based on the generation volume
Interim Levy Rate (£/MWh) Under the Supplier Obligation Levy, electricity suppliers make pre-payments consisting of a unit cost fixed Interim Levy Rate, charged at a daily £/MWh rate to fund the cost of CfD generation payments. The Interim Levy Rate is set by LCCC every quarter, one quarter in advance, based on an estimate of the payments that will need to be made in respect of CfD generation in that quarter.
Period End End Date of the respective Quarterly Obligation Period
Period Start Start Date of the respective Quarterly Obligation Period
Quarterly Obligation Period A period of 3 months commencing after 31st March 2015 on 1st April, 1st July, 1st October or 1st January in any period of 12 months
Sensitivity Base Case / Low Case / High Case
Total Reserve Amount (£) The amount LCCC determines is needed for there to be a 19 in 20 probability of it being able to make all the CfD generation payments required during that quarter, having regard to: a)the amount of Interim Levy Rate payments which it expects to collect from suppliers during the quarter; b)the likelihood of any supplier failing to make payments during the quarter; and c)the estimated income to be received by the company from CfD generators in the quarter, the estimated amount of electricity to be supplied by suppliers in the quarter and the estimated amount the company will need in the quarter to pay CfD generators