Forecasting & Supplier Levy Manager

The Forecasting and Supplier Levy Manager reports to the Head of Data & Analytics and has overall accountability and line management responsibility for all operational and analytical work of the Forecasting Team, who play an important role within the schemes and the levy funding process.

The operational responsibility includes oversight of demand and levy forecasting models and internal reports supporting recommendations to adjust levy rates and for the publication of the levies to suppliers via EMRS, liaising with LCCC Comms and Legal. Other operational responsibilities include longer term forecasts and scenarios or annual valuation of Contracts for Difference (CfDs) for accounting purposes

The role is also responsible for the development and communication of analysis mainly (though not solely) related to CfDs and Capacity Market (CM), supporting the wider business, working with the sister team Data Architecture and Analytics (DAA) to ensure consistency of approach and standards for accurate, meaningful and timely communication of data and information internally and externally to the LCCC.

Person specification:

  • Curiosity
  • Experience – either directly or of overseeing - the building, maintaining and calibrating complex mathematical models
  • Experience in validation of complex modelling suites and systems
  • In-depth understanding of GB electricity market, ideally with experience in fundamental power prices modelling
  • Understanding of Monte-Carlo/Scenario type analysis
  • Ability to make decisions to tight deadlines, rapidly assimilating available data and information from diverse sources
  • Ability to consider a number of potential outcomes, assess impact and balance risks
  • Ability to communicate complex ideas in simplified terms
  • Exceptional internal and external stakeholder engagement skills, including working collaboratively with different business functions

Your key responsibilities will include:  

Levies and Forecasting

  • Overseeing the calculation and communication of quarterly Supplier Obligation levels to internal and external stakeholders as required
  • Managing annual and periodic forecast update processes as required and recommending key financial/business planning assumptions
  • Effective presentation of information to support business activity and optimisation of business performance including liaison with Financial Controller on funding implications
  • Providing annual forecasts of eligible demand to BEIS for the purposes of determining the Operational Cost Levy, and updates to LCCC Operational Finance on actual vs forecast as appropriate

Modelling, data and analytics

  • Leading the development of LCCC analytical capability and model (re-) development.
  • Ownership of Forecasting Models and responsible for the accuracy and integrity of calculations, inputs and outputs, including project managing periodic updates and calibration.
  • Understanding of the interactions/interfaces between the Forecasting model and data sources
  • Application of data analytical tools and techniques to create accurate management reports for decision making on forecasting.
  • Ensuring continuous improvements of the forecasting tools and processes, based on lessons learned, energy market development, and policy/regulatory changes

Line Management

  • Defining standards, processes and guidelines aligned to current and future business needs, owning and ensuring compliance / assurance of forecasting activities
  • Supporting the development of the team to ensure a motivated and high performing team, including coaching to ensure the team perform their roles with excellence and with confidence
  • In conjunction with LCCC procurement, purchase data subscriptions and consultancy and technical services as required to support the forecasting function, managing these contracts efficiently

Stakeholder management

  • Pro-actively build relationships with the wider BEIS analytic community for mutual benefit including the exchange of information and techniques and upholding modelling quality
  • Working with internal LCCC stakeholders to ensure accurate and meaningful publication of information from the Forecasting Model (including relevant levy rates).
  • Responsible for representing the Company from time to time during the relevant company or industry events